Best forex trading book everyone poops
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A review and analysis of the Q1 operating results. Calculating the Intrinsic Value of Berkshire Hathaway. In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield. In hindsight, I was slightly overzealous in the situation.
The virus had already spread beyond what testing at the time had shown in the United States. The health systems in various countries could not handle an exponential increase in COVID cases that some scientists projected. The Government response to flatten the curve meant enforcing partial or full economic shut-downs in over countries around the world. Other contributing factors were obvious margin calls, unwinding of risk parity trades, and last, Saudi Arabia and Russia starting an oil price war as discussed in my second article Resolving the Mexican Stand-off in Oil Markets today.
It's been approximately two months since my first article and this how the five stock recommendations have performed: Data by YCharts In one word - Abysmal. First, I apologize if anyone followed me directly on my analysis. Fourth, I added to some positions as prices fell further, and I will update you as they announce Q1 earnings. This brings me to Berkshire Hathaway, who announced earnings on May 2nd and held its Annual Shareholders Meeting then too.
BRK is my largest individual stock position. But putting that aside, I am still disappointed by the stock performance and the underlying activities this past quarter. In this piece, I'd like to share my takeaways of both the Q1 results and the Annual Shareholders Meeting. There have been various commentaries on the meeting, yet there are several nuances I think most investors have misunderstood. I hope to shed some light on these aspects amongst my notes.
The Q can be found here for your reference. Ironically, it's the complete opposite of the previous quarter and annual results. In my earlier article , I noted the record profits, and that I predicted Buffett to be repurchasing shares: Only a week ago, Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders for Berkshire Hathaway, if itself isn't eating itself, will put extra capital to work in this market.
I will circle back to this later in my Intrinsic Value calculation If we put the investment portfolio aside, the year over year operating earnings are not so bad. However, COVID will affect the Q2 operating results more than Q1, as noted in the report: Most investors don't realize that Buffett's cash levels often match the insurance float levels each year.
In recent years, many investors jump to the conclusion - "Buffett can't find anything to buy in an overpriced market" - without understanding for over a decade he keeps substantial liquidity on hand to compensate for potential insurance liabilities. Last, note that the last share repurchase was between March 2nd and March 10th.
My conclusion based upon comments made in the Annual Shareholders Meeting is that he was speaking with several companies for financing deals over the 2nd and 3rd weeks in March before the Fed's policy responses were in full motion and he expected putting capital to work at a better return that stock repurchases. Little did he know that the market would turn on a dime and distressed companies could get financing through Government programs, Fed monetary backstops and capital markets.
Capital allocation works well when you are the only one with supply in a tight market. Buffett is used to this, especially in the credit crunch. This time, however, the Fed's response has been large 6 trillion dollars and quick less than two months. It was necessary and correct despite criticisms from many investors.
Buffett even commended their actions in the Shareholder's Meeting. The third reason the share repurchases stopped is that the range of possible economic outcomes for the coronavirus means that a potential bet buying back shares may not have a possible expected value. Buffett likes certainty in making investments, whether it was the historic net-nets cigar butts , to American Express and Coca Cola, to avoiding technology names for over a decade until Apple AAPL.
He won't make further share repurchases until the range of outcomes narrows again. Most investors and commentators are suggesting Buffett is fearful or waiting for the market to fall further. I disagree. It is because from where Buffett stands, handicapping the odds of the pandemic only 2 months in, is more difficult than most presume. This morning I received this article about the importance of your poop. It can never hurt to know more about your poop.
So, if you can get past the initial awkwardness, you can find out a lot of information about your health simply by taking a closer look at your stool. Among the things is that as soon as I wake up in the morning, I drink 2 glasses of water and I eat half a pineapple. Our intestine is 27 feet long. It is like sending water and brush to clean my digestive track. After that I will have a cup of coffee and nothing else until lunch time. As a result, my poop is always watery with some solid pieces, nearly the same as the third one of the pictures below.
So, what can you learn by looking at your poop?
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