NBA Betting Systems · Play on Rested Teams vs Teams on No Rest · Play Against Teams Playing Four Games in Five Days · Play on Teams as a Road Favorite After a. 2. Winning or Losing Against the Spread (ATS) · Example #1: Suppose Team A was a 6-point favorite and they ended up winning the game by 9 points. · Example #2. One strategy that has nothing to do with stats or research is the NBA quarter's betting strategy. All you need to do here is to bet on the team that lost the. FORBES CRYPTO BILLIONAIRES

Example 3: Suppose Team A was a 5-point favorite and they ended up being the victim of a point loss. This time, Vegas expected them to win by a 5-point margin, but they disappointed in a big way by dropping the game by Got it? Do teams historically tend to bounce back in their next game after getting embarrassed against the spread ATS? The short answer is yes! That fits perfectly with my contrarian approach to sports betting.

That forces sportsbooks to adjust their odds and it creates good opportunities for contrarians like us! Obviously, as a statistician, I need data to back up my intuitions. Still, a Notice how the win percentages generally increase as we move down the table. More specifically, teams that have lost the past game by If it got destroyed by Those are pretty convincing numbers over a large sample.

And it goes in accordance with my initial intuition, so we have a perfect mix for a betting system that we can actually trust in the future. I did! In the table below, we are betting teams that lost the two most recent games of the series ATS which does not necessarily mean they lost those games straight up!

Remember what we saw in Section 2 of this article! Each row specifies the number of points by which the team in question lost the previous game of the series. As for columns, they indicate the same information, but this time relative to what happened two games ago.

Overall, teams losing against the spread on two straight occasions in a series have gone We observe a funny coincidence: the win percentage, Now, if you impose the restriction of only betting teams that have lost by at least 4. The corresponding ROI turns out to be So far we have developed two terrific betting strategies that recommend backing teams coming off one or two disappointing performances during the NBA playoffs.

My next intuition was as follows: Is it possible that we do better when betting favorites? Here was my reasoning. Suppose Team A is stronger than Team B. For instance, Team A might be the 2 seed, while Team B may have finished as the 7 seed. The payout line will slightly vary depending on several factors and so will the spread. The opening line — when the bookmaker opens the betting round for an NBA game — however will most likely have the same payout: Going back to our initial example, the Lakers — Bulls line can very well be an opening line.

But what if LeBron James injures himself during practice? Injuries are the most obvious moving factors. The betting trends throughout the day can also move the spread and the payout structure. Betting trends? If a line is one sided — many more bettors wagered on the Lakers The bookies look for that fine balance between Lakers and Bulls bettors, this is how they maximize their profit and minimize their loses in case of an unexpected turnout.

Just before tipoff, all bets are off and the last betting line is also the closing line. In our case, it may look like this: Los Angeles Lakers Well, they are definitely a viable option for any serious NBA bettor. Because the bettor can minimize costs and maximize profit.

Also, the payout is most of the time predictable and the bettor knows what he can get in advance. As explained in our NBA Parlay Betting Guide , parlays are combo bets with multiple individual wagers linked together. Usually, to win a parlay, ALL picks must be correct. If one NBA pick is wrong, the bet is off and you lose money.

Point Spread parlays are multiple spread bets bundled together in one super bet.

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The NBA Finals is one of the most wagered events of the year, so lines move as the public gets their action in. This means, every single day, you have the opportunity to handicap games. If you become a master of handicapping art, the NBA can do wonders for you. There are exceptions, like a major injury to either side. This gives you proper time to see how public bettors react. The strategy here is to come up with your selection based on the opening lines, and then look for the odds that move in your favor.

This gives you a slight edge to an existing pick. Always be keen on spotting any drastic movements on a particular game. Unless you know the reason, the line changed so much, it can help you. You can get a bit carried away. Not in the NBA, we have a full game calendar although in it was cut to 72 because of the pandemic.

Also, if you make any wagers in a close gap of time, you can burn your cash. Slow and steady is the way to build your bankroll, especially in a long season. The Home Court Advantage Listen carefully. Do not underestimate home court advantage now that the crowds are back. Even bad teams can get pumped at home and leave you empty-handed.

In the spread, home court equals about three to four points, give or take. Always look for the teams that have a positive home record. These are points in the paint, rebounds, and turnovers. If a team can dominate the tempo of the game by controlling the rebounds, they have a big edge. As for the turnovers, taking care of the ball results in more scoring opportunities. It also forces the other team to earn hard-work points. No easy layups, right? Sometimes, teams go back to back. You need to consider this.

Especially now, as some big-time players get load management, missing games to rest. Oddsmakers are aware of this, and they adjust the betting odds for particular games. If you follow the information carefully, this is a great chance to bet on the fresher team. However, some of them offer a lot of value. Blowout System This is fading a home favorite after blowing another team out in the previous game.

This system implies that you bet on the underdog team they face, and against the home favorite on the spread. It is not a much-recommended team, but if you keep track of load management and stuff, it may be useful. Then, bet on them in their next home game. You aim for the team to bounce back once they have a home-court advantage. Once again, is betting on ludicrous logic. The opening line — when the bookmaker opens the betting round for an NBA game — however will most likely have the same payout: Going back to our initial example, the Lakers — Bulls line can very well be an opening line.

But what if LeBron James injures himself during practice? Injuries are the most obvious moving factors. The betting trends throughout the day can also move the spread and the payout structure. Betting trends? If a line is one sided — many more bettors wagered on the Lakers The bookies look for that fine balance between Lakers and Bulls bettors, this is how they maximize their profit and minimize their loses in case of an unexpected turnout. Just before tipoff, all bets are off and the last betting line is also the closing line.

In our case, it may look like this: Los Angeles Lakers Well, they are definitely a viable option for any serious NBA bettor. Because the bettor can minimize costs and maximize profit. Also, the payout is most of the time predictable and the bettor knows what he can get in advance. As explained in our NBA Parlay Betting Guide , parlays are combo bets with multiple individual wagers linked together.

Usually, to win a parlay, ALL picks must be correct. If one NBA pick is wrong, the bet is off and you lose money. Point Spread parlays are multiple spread bets bundled together in one super bet. Obviously the odds are significantly increased compared to a single NBA point spread bet.

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